Questions that will define the summer of 2021 in the NBA
Is the 2021-22 salary cap impacted by COVID-19?
Even with fan attendance near capacity for most playoff games, the league is still feeling the financial implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, sources confirmed to ESPN that the salary cap in 2021-22 is projected to come in at $112.1 million, a 3% increase from this past season.
What should we expect from the Lakers?
There is no clear path for the Lakers to acquire a third star to team up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, assuming one is even available this summer.
The Lakers are over the salary cap, and their roster options are limited outside of bringing back their own free agents: Schroder, Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker. Signing all three pushes them into the luxury tax, leaving Los Angeles with the $5.9 million tax midlevel and veterans minimum exceptions to fill out the rest of the roster. If the Lakers let Schroder walk but bring back Caruso and Horton-Tucker, they are still limited to the $5.9 million tax midlevel exception even if Montrezl Harrell declines his $9.7 million player option.
A sign-and-trade is an option, but it would trigger the $143 million hard cap, meaning the Lakers would need to shed the contracts of Harrell and either Kyle Kuzma or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Is there a team out there that would take on the $39 million owed to Kuzma or the $17 million owed to Caldwell-Pope?
Which position has the deepest group of free agents?
The free-agent talent pool this offseason is average, but if there is a position of strength it would be at point guard. While it is likely that Chris Paul remains with the Phoenix Suns, either on a new contract or an extension, the market is flooded with starting-caliber point guards who could change teams. The list consists of Lowry, Mike Conley, Lonzo Ball (restricted), Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson, Kendrick Nunn (restricted), Devonte’ Graham (restricted) and Cameron Payne.
Is Phoenix the favorite to re-sign Chris Paul?
After the Finals are over, Paul has a decision to make with his $44.2 million player option. He can opt in and extend for an additional two seasons with the Suns or test free agency. If he becomes a free agent, the Suns are still the heavy favorites to bring Paul back.
Paul has earned over $300 million in his career on the court, has signed three max contracts and is at a point in his life when competing for a championship could outweigh searching for that next lucrative deal.
Will the 2018 rookie draft class top $1 billion in contract extensions?
A year ago, the 2017 draft class — led by Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox — set a league record when it signed $1 billion in rookie extensions.
That mark is expected to be smashed this offseason. Ayton, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr. alone account for $860 million in projected new money. Five players signing a rookie max extension would set the record for one offseason. Add Bridges, Kevin Huerter, Collin Sexton, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles Bridges, Robert Williams and possibly Jaren Jackson Jr. to that group and we could be looking at over $1.2 billion in extensions.
Who are some of the under the radar free agents to keep an eye on?
Keep an eye on Richaun Holmes and McDermott.
Holmes is coming off a two-year stretch in Sacramento in which he started 88 games, averaging 13 points and 8.5 rebounds. Because he signed a two-year contract, the most that the Kings can offer as a starting salary for 2021-22 is $10.7 million ($1.2 million more than what a team could offer with the midlevel exception). League rules prevent the Kings from signing Holmes to a one-year, $11 million contract that would allow him to establish full Bird rights and sign a more lucrative contract in 2022.
McDermott averaged career highs in points (13.6), field goal percentage (53.2%), true shooting percentage (63.2%) rebounds (3.4) and offensive rating (110.5). He also ranks No. 6 among all small forwards in offensive real plus-minus. Since the All-Star break, the forward shot 56.1% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range. The Pacers are $11 million below the luxury tax, and signing McDermott would put them over the threshold.
