Can the Bucks beat the Suns in the Finals without their best shot-maker?

In less than 72 hours, the Bucks will find themselves on the floor of Phoenix Suns Arena for Game 1 of the Finals against a Suns squad brimming with confidence.

Milwaukee and Phoenix played two thrillers in the regular season. The first was a Suns 125-124 decision in which Antetokounmpo missed what would have been the game-winning jumper at the top of the key. The second was a bizarre overtime victory by Phoenix, after Tucker was whistled for a foul on a Devin Booker jumper at the buzzer of a tie game.

The Finals matchup is difficult to handicap without the knowledge of Antetokounmpo’s status and condition. If he is healthy, the Suns will need to devise a scheme to cut off his penetration or at least contain it better than they did in those previous two meetings, during which Antetokounmpo eviscerated them for 80 combined points.

Crafting their pick-and-roll defense might be the Bucks’ most interesting tactical challenge for the Finals. With its conservative defense that prefers to challenge perimeter actions 2-on-2 and keep a body between the driver and the basket, Milwaukee will be pressured by Chris Paul, one of the savviest practitioners in league history. In their scheme, the Bucks have traditionally ceded midrange shots, but they’ll be facing one of the game’s most proficient midrange shooters in Paul. The Bucks have shown an adaptability not previously seen in 2019 and 2020, and that willingness to adjust will come in handy against a Phoenix backcourt that can exploit shaky defenses but good ones too.

It is hard not to see Antetokounmpo’s health as the margin in the upcoming Finals, because MVPs have an uncanny way of influencing big games. But whether Antetokounmpo is at 100 percent, considerably less than that or not on the court at all, the Bucks have developed an alternate persona in his absence, even as he remains vital to their core identity.

Whoever takes the floor in Phoenix will carry the weight of a franchise eager to cash in three seasons’ — and 50 years’ — worth of expectations.